你。。。我。。。他。。。

Junction

There will be some time, when you found yourself standing at a junction, you know you have several ways, but you don't know exactly which way you should go, you don't have much time to stand by the junction and think, you have to go on, fast. What can you do?

1. Follow the crowd.
2. Go right. Right is always right.
3. Stand by the junction and wait for something (be it vehicle, animal or human) to pass by. The direction where the first thing came, that's the way you will take. What if the first thing came thru the same way as you did?
4. Number the junction, then buy a lottery/jackpot with random pick. The first number on the lottery ticket will be your choice (DIY for details).
5. Close you eyes and spin yourself several times, in both clockwise and anticlockwise directions, then take one huge step forward. Open your eyes and that's the way you will go.
6. Just go straight and don't look back. What if there's no one straight way ahead, but two ways, with same angle difference from the imaginary straight line?
7. Name your junction with number, then throw a fair dice ( DIY for details). To prevent biases, you should probably have several replications and repetitions. But if you have too many runs, you might end up with number 3.5 (central limit theorem), then what?
8. Pairwise comparison, using a coin to decide which one to choose from each pair. But you will probably regret soon after you eliminate one.
9. Create a spreadsheet and enter every options, every possible outcomes associate with each option, then assign probability to each possible outcome. Run the simulation n times, choose the best option.
10. Search the literature. See what previous wanderer did. But you probably won't find anything helpful.

And after reading all these craps, you probably still don't know what to do, not to mention which way to go. Great! And now I am admiring myself for coming up with all these craps while I can actually try to figure out which way to go!

posted by Trouble @ 2:46 PM